Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
